Presidential Race Polling
Note that only registered voters calls for these kind of polls. If you're not registered, then you're not allowed to influence others with what you think.
Also, note carefully whether a candidate has support for the general election if they are not a voter's first choice. This should give you pause in selecting a candidate.
We have two sources of polls. See the links from CNN and the NY Times.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/12/poll.matchups/index.html?iref=werecommend
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/us/politics/14poll.html?_r=2&th&emc=th&oref=slogin&oref=login
Also, note carefully whether a candidate has support for the general election if they are not a voter's first choice. This should give you pause in selecting a candidate.
We have two sources of polls. See the links from CNN and the NY Times.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/12/poll.matchups/index.html?iref=werecommend
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/us/politics/14poll.html?_r=2&th&emc=th&oref=slogin&oref=login
Interesting. In this age when some voters get all of their news from the likes of Comedy Central, the impact of first impressions can be critical. In this case, I see the results of polls may be presented according to the viewpoint of the writer or the editors. To a casual reader, the headline can be all a reader sees.
In the case of the CNN article, the headline was "Poll: Eventual GOP Nominee Faces Tough General Election". That is probably a good prediction, and a casual reader could easily conclude that the GOP is at a disadvantage.
As we read more of the article, we learn that Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani poll poorly against both Clinton and Obama, but we learn several paragraphs into the article that McCain is basically tied in polling with both Clinton and Obama. So, a different writer and a different editor could write about McCain in the first few paragraphs and use a headline such as "Polls Show Surging McCain Even with Dems". This is also accurate, and with the same set of facts, but the casual reader will probably come away with a different impression.
It's not what you say, but how you say it.
Some thoughts on the polls. 1. New Hampshire. 2. I think a lot of people who respond to polls still don't know how they will vote. Actually, I'm one of those people who doesn't know. 3. The point of second choices is important, Statistically, we mainly have two candidates against a split vote of four, or maybe five candidates. When the four or five are narrowed down to two, then, I think, it will be less apples to oranges.
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Jim,
Good commentary.
You remind me of the part in the book where I talk about the sportscaster is making his remarks about why the team who's behind is losing, rather than about why the team who's ahead is winning.
Larry
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