Aspects of the PA Primary Overshadowed by Clinton vs. Obama
Here are a couple of things to watch for commentary on. Unfortunately, we don't have the resources to conduct our own polling on the matter.
First, how many Democrats turn out for this Primary as opposed to how many Republicans?
The Republican turn out is likely to be suppressed, given that the contest is already decided. Still, what if the ratio of Democratic voters to Republican voters is something like 8 to 5? What does that mean for the election in the fall? Will the 8 Democratic voters show up in the fall to vote Democratic, regardless of whether the nominee is Clinton or Obama?
Or will some of those 8 Democrats stay home, dropping the ratio from 8-5 to 7-5? Will more Republicans show up in the fall and make the ratio 7-6 or 7-7?
Will some of those 8 Democrats, if their voting choice doesn't win now, cross over in November and vote for McCain? Which of the two Democrats, Clinton or Obama, would be most likely to cause that to happen if they were the Democratic nominee? Or would neither of the Democratic nominees force a change to the Republicans in the fall?
How much of this type of scenario applies to all the rest of the Primaries?
Interesting thoughts anyway. What are yours?
First, how many Democrats turn out for this Primary as opposed to how many Republicans?
The Republican turn out is likely to be suppressed, given that the contest is already decided. Still, what if the ratio of Democratic voters to Republican voters is something like 8 to 5? What does that mean for the election in the fall? Will the 8 Democratic voters show up in the fall to vote Democratic, regardless of whether the nominee is Clinton or Obama?
Or will some of those 8 Democrats stay home, dropping the ratio from 8-5 to 7-5? Will more Republicans show up in the fall and make the ratio 7-6 or 7-7?
Will some of those 8 Democrats, if their voting choice doesn't win now, cross over in November and vote for McCain? Which of the two Democrats, Clinton or Obama, would be most likely to cause that to happen if they were the Democratic nominee? Or would neither of the Democratic nominees force a change to the Republicans in the fall?
How much of this type of scenario applies to all the rest of the Primaries?
Interesting thoughts anyway. What are yours?





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