Indiana Primary Results—Number Crunching Some What Ifs

Today I want to look at the results of the Indiana based on some commentary I’ve heard from the Talking Heads on MSNBC.

Before I do that, though, I want to say I would like your input on next week’s Ezine. I keep promising myself (and you) that I would write an article about what I want to see happen with whoever wins the next election. Perhaps more accurately, I want to write about what I don’t want to see happen. Let me re-phrase this to you as this question. What are your top three concerns about what will happen if a (insert Democrat or Republican here, your choice) is elected President. Reply to this Ezine and let me know. I’ll use your input and mine to write a couple of Ezines.

Now back to Indiana. One of the talking heads on MSNBC’s Morning Cup of Joe brought up two interesting stats today. First, they calculated that 7% of those who voted for Hillary Clinton were Republicans responding to Rush Limbaugh’s so-called Operation Chaos who had no intention of voting for Hillary Clinton in the fall. Second, MSNBC reported that exit polling indicated that 50% of those who voted for Hillary Clinton in the primary would not vote for Barack Obama if he became the nominee.

So let’s look at the actual number of voters per MSNBC.com and apply those percentages.

 Democratic Results        Republican Results
Clinton     644,590            McCain     319,610
Obama     630,395            Huckabee  41,164
Total      1,274,985            Paul           31,628
                                          Romney     19,456
                                          Total        411,948

The first thing standing out from these numbers (as has been true with so many of the contests) is the difference in turnout. More than three times as many people turned out to vote in the Democratic contest as in the Republican one. We note once again in fairness that for the Republicans, the game is over. McCain is a fait accompli, and voter participation is likely down as a result.

Nevertheless, look again at the results. Even if the contest is over for them, 92,338 Republican voters (22.41%) voted for someone besides McCain.

7% of Hillary’s total was Republicans voting Democratic, but even if you add those 45,121 votes to the 411, 948; you are still far short of the 1,229,864 left after subtracting that 7% from the Democratic total.

Further, let’s consider what the Democratic outcome would be had the mischievous Republicans stayed home. Hillary’s total would have dropped to 599,469 and Obama, with the same total of votes, would have won Indiana by 30,926 votes, 51% to 49%.

Let’s take the position that the 7% wandering Republicans are part of the subset of 50% of Hillary’s total who exit polls say will not vote for Obama in the Fall. That’s 322,295 voters. If you added all those voters to the Republican total from yesterday’s primary, then Obama would still have won in Indiana. Obama’s total with Hillary’s true to the Democratic ticket voters would be 952,690 against McCain’s of 734,243.

I had someone ask me last night about the potential outcome of the US Senate race here in Nebraska. The likely Republican nominee is Mike Johanns, the ex-governor who resigned to become Secretary of Agriculture for the Bush Administration. While he is clearly a favorite to win, what he and other Republican candidates must be concerned about is the heavy turn out of Democratic voters in the primaries. This turn out is reflective of a “throw the rascals out” kind of mood that could turn normal predictions on their ear.

And, of course, all of this will go out the window in the Fall for the General Election when even more voters turn out. Still, it's interesting to play with the numbers.

Doubtless someone reading this has another perspective on the numbers. Feel free to comment.

Instant Runoff Voting

In preparing for my event last night, I was looking again at the mechanics of Instant Runoff Voting (also known as Automatic Runoff Voting).

I remain convinced that if we want to break the negative grip of Polarized Politics, then we need a better system of voting. Simply electing “better” candidates within the existing system is not going to work. This two party duopoly we have is not going to heal itself.

Take a look at www.instantrunoff.com. This site really explains the concept well, the advantage of taking away the “spoiler” argument and gives you things you can do to get the method used in your state. Part of the good news here is that the concept could be approved at the state level. The US Constitution would not have to be amended to use this method.