Let me toss out a simple idea on health care and get your comments.

My thought is we get so involved in discussions of public options and single payers and the like we lose sight of some basic thoughts.

Insurance companies employ some really smart people whose title is Actuary. That means they are people who are highly skilled in mathematics and statistics. They use those skills to be able to tell their bosses data like this. If you have so many thousands of people, then you will have so many who will break a leg, ribs or an arm. So many others will be in a car accident, a hunting accident or develop a cancer. Those Actuaries can predict with reasonable certainty the level of occurrences within a certain population, they just can’t tell you which individuals will become that statistic. They could, however, tell you with more certainty if they know the personal characteristics of an individual. For example, someone who skydives is more likely to break a leg than someone who doesn’t.

Now think of this concept.

If we know the probabilities for disease across the population, then shouldn’t you be able to do the calculations and tell the medical industry within plus or minus x% how many illnesses and injuries they need to treat?

And if you know how many illnesses and injuries there were going to be to treat in a year, then aren’t you able to also predict the reasonable cost of treating those illnesses and injuries?

Further, if can predict the total cost of treating those illnesses (including the costs of reasonable salaries for medical professionals) then shouldn’t we be able to . . .

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